The Department of Commerce is forecasting an increase in tourism to the United States this year, reversing a trend the media has falsely dubbed the “Trump Slump.”

The National Travel and Tourism Office said economic data projects tourism will increase to 78 million international visitors in 2018, a return to 2015 levels. Tourism to the United States began declining in 2016, costing billions in travel revenue.

The department issued the travel forecast on Friday. The forecast considers economic, demographic, social factors, historical visitation trends, input from department staff abroad, and other sources, the department said.

“The forecast is based on a country-level, bottom-up consensus approach by a four-member forecast team,” the department said. “Each team member develops independent country-level estimates for the top 20 visitor origin markets based on numerous quantitative data and qualitative information. These 20 markets account for 88 percent of total international arrivals.”

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